The cost structure in five years to change the ratio of fixed and variable costs will be at 47.62%. This is because that when calculating the cost of the project lays the annual growth rate for the following types of costs: RSEO – 10%. Variable costs are changed to 10% every year, and an increase in fixed costs is less intense because annually grow only at the cost surcharge for the combination of professions and deductions from the surcharge. In order to accommodate uncertainty, the possible incompleteness and inaccuracy of information on the conditions of the project, which may lead to negative consequences for project participants, an analysis of possible implementation scenarios project. Was examined three scenarios for the project: – increase in value transfer price of rent and fuel for 25% of the project level – modernization of the terminal loading ramps instead of buying new, upgrading ramps cost of 200 thousand rubles – the implementation of the project under the following conditions: 50% of the amount of necessary investments – equity and 50% – a bank loan.
According to the results of scenario analysis can be concluded that All projects are more efficient, even with an increase in these indicators. Sensitivity analysis showed that the greatest impact on the effectiveness of the project provides income from savings, as even a slight decrease in its leading to a sharp decrease in net present value of the project and vice versa. Less affected by changes in the discount rate. Changes in the values of variables costs and inflation do not affect the basic performance of the project.