Global Economy

So Paulo, 28 of June of 2005Para the partner-director of the Global consultoria Financial Advisor, Miguel Daoud, currently has an excess of liquidity in the decurrent world-wide economy of the change of the profile of the international savings, that after the succession of crises between 1997 and 2002, had carried through adjustments in the direction to form reserves. ' ' The countries that had suffered with these crises had had a very strong adjustment in the direction to have saving, to have reserves. Only that these reserves are in dollar and finish financing the North American economy, reason for which U.S.A. can have a twin deficit of more US$ 1 trillion. It has availability of recursos' ' , it explains. The partner-director of the Risk Office Consultoria*, Carlos Antonio Rocca, also sees an excess of saving in world-wide terms. ' ' as U.S.A. continues being a dynamic economy and has all a trustworthy picture, of baixssimo credit risk, would have then a trend of credit excess if to direct to mercado' ' , it says.

For Daoud, if it did not have a retrocession perhaps in the consolidation of the European Union, with the rejection of the Constitution and the problems with the rightness of the Budget, it was possible to see the beginning of adjustment in this disequilibrium, since euro also would appear as option for the formation of reservas.' ' Euro, that it is configured as one second option, still is very unstable. Until if it stabilizes, U.S.A. continues with offers monstrous of resource because it does not have opo' '. Still in accordance with the Daoud, the North American economy today consumes 85% of the available financial saving in the world. is this dynamics that favors the formation of bubbles in the economy mundial.*Marcelo Rabbat is consulting at risk of credit and risk of market. One of the partners of the RiskOffice, the Rabbat is also managing of the PR& The Consultoria de Investimentos, together with Sergio Malacrida, specialized in modeling of systems of credit and market risk.